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Applying

The observant reader has noticed a change in the title of this blog. Do you see the change? I have changed it because I want to emphasize the application of systems thinking even more. Thinking high and lofty thoughts are not enough. I am interested in changing the way things are to the better.

One reader asked me: what do you offer? I gave it a thought. I like to solve problems and find new ways. As a consultant I have many years of experience of building IT-systems to solve problems. But there is a bigger perspective. Information technology can produce a lot of “waste”; information that does not add real value.  They can also just reinforce bad ways of doing things. It is better to do right things than to do less of wrong things.

You are in a situation and you are not satisfied. There is a problem, an undesired behaviour or you want to move on and find new ways of doing things.  How can you proceed?

System behaviour

When we are looking for solutions, we have a tendency to single out one or two possible causes and attempt to correct them. We fail to see the big perspective and because of this, our solution does not lead to long-term change. It is as if what we trying to change have an inherent resistance to change. After a while things revert to the old conditions or get worse. We fail to see that material and immaterial things around us: habits, machines, people, programs, attitudes and culture are connected to each other and form a system. Different parts of this system depend on each other and interact. It is the system that probably produces the undesired behaviour and not a single part, a single process or a single person. I can help you to identify the relevant perspective.

We have a tendency to focus on certain details (abstractions) for optimization. This can be negative for other parts and for the whole. What we call side-effects are ordinary effects, just like the effects we desire. The abstraction exists only in our minds. For example, we have focused on transportation and considered pollution a side-effect. But this “side-effect” is biting us badly now.

Time

We need to increase the boundaries of the area we study and take into account the time factor. Systems have inertia and different parts interact through feedback. Changing one part might produce something unexpected in another part. Consequences might take a sudden turn and not behave as nice and calm as we thought.

We should recognize properties of connections and relationships as having real importance, just like the properties of the parts. Some strenghts only exist because of relationships. People are not like a container of competence that you can move around. We often talk about employees as resources. If you reorganize, have you considered what will happen with the relationships of trust within groups of people?

Leverage points

There are places in this mix of parts and connections where you can get the most long term change with minimal effort. These points are sometimes not so obvious and perhaps counter-intuitive. The discipline systems thinking calls these places leverage points. Efficient problem solving is done by studying the whole system and finding the leverage points. I can help you to find these leverage points.

Problem solving can result in a redesign of a system. It can also mean that we learn to navigate more efficiently in a system we cannot change. Actually we can control much less of our environment than we think.

How to do it

There is a practical approach of how to efficiently solve problems. It can be done with a series of meetings or modelling sessions where a group of people together with a facilitator meet. The facilitator guides the group through the process and together they co-create the solution. The outcome might be a process map, a vision statement, an informational model or just a bunch of good ideas. The dialogue during the sessions is very important. The journey is just as valuable as the result. By working together a shared view of the problem and the solution is built. I can help you by guiding you through the problem solving sessions.

Computer model

The system dynamics discipline takes it a step further by attempting to make a computer model of the relevant part of the system. During the modelling sessions we build a flight simulator where different policies that can be tested and evaluated. It may sound strange that is can be useful to build computer models with “soft” variables. But even a limited model is of great value, since during the work hidden assumptions are made visible. A shared “live” graphical model says more than thousands words and can be of great help in to learn to think systemic in a situation.

So what do I offer? I offer you help in solving problems and finding new ways by applying systems thinking.

Trust in a relationship

When we got married some 26 years ago, someone gave us the advice to say “I love you” every day. It was a simple recipe and we started doing that; saying positive, encouraging and loving words to each other every day. This formed a habit, which our children eventually got into also. Sometimes we don’t feel a thing, but we keep on saying it anyway. It gets easier and is more powerful when trust has been built up for some years. It is like investing in the future. We have had our ups and downs, but this simple habit has been a cornerstone in building a warm and lasting relationship which means a lot to me. Nowadays when I come home after a troublesome day, I just need a couple of minutes cooking dinner together to get on the right side again. We have trust and the words of my wife have deep effect.

Structure

This simple story could be expressed in system dynamics (SD) concepts. A habit is a pattern, consisting of reoccurring similar events and resulting consequences. The consequences feeds back and affect the type of event that caused it. These patterns form a dynamic structure, intangible in this case but none the less very real. This structure was formed over some time and as established it now has almost a life of its own. It affects the surrounding environment.

System dynamics is a way to describe behaviour that change over time. It is like an abstract language, with a terminology that naturally explains what is happening around us. Abstractions and models of the real world can be more or less fitting. In system terminology the above could be described as below.

A simple model

Encouraging, positive Words affects Change of trust which makes Trust increase. Trust is like a bathtub and Change of trust is like the faucet controlling the flow of water. The arrow going out from Trust symbolizes that negative words drain Trust. With positive words, Trust accumulates over time. In the model there is also a relationship between Trust back to Change of trust, meaning that as Trust increases, Words have bigger effect. This feedback reinforces the increase of Trust.

Remember that this is a simple model to illustrate the concepts of system dynamics.

Different perspective

What difference does it make to describe the situation this way? We are typically not trained to see patterns over time, feedbacks or accumulations and this lack of perspective brings us into trouble. We try to change a situation and and are surprised as it becomes worse. When something goes wrong we look for someone to blame, but the truth is that we together have created a structure that produces the behaviour, good and bad. Our thinking, deeply affected by media, is short-sighted and focuses on simple event-cause relationships and details.

Smarter navigation

What difference does it make to know about dynamics? If we are conscious of these principles we can purposely design or redesign structures around us for the better. If we cannot manage the system, we can at least navigate in a smarter way. If we realize the above structure in a relationship, we understand that it takes time to build trust and that we have to be patient. Trust is a stock and is very valuable. It shouldn’t easily be thrown away.

Have you ever been to a cheap hotel and experienced the difficulties of getting a comfortable temperature in the shower? I have. Did it occur to you when battling with the tap, that you might not be the only shower-taker?

Inspired by a chapter in Morecrofts book, I made a model of the shower problem in Vensim software. The model (part of it shown below) simulates the experience of taking a shower and adjusting the tap to get a comfortable temperature. The setup is like a game. You start the simulation,  and in the diagram you see the shower head temperature changing “live” as you adjust the tap with the slider in the upper left corner. You compete with the computer that manages a hidden shower and your goal is to have as little temperature difference as possible for 120 seconds. The hidden shower shares the same hot water pipe as you use. It means that you are affected by the other person fiddling on his tap.

Below you can see one of my simulations (click on it to enlarge). it is very tricky to reach your goal, when someone else competes for the same resources; a very good metaphor for situations in real life.

Each shower-taker has an adjustment strategy appropriate for a single shower. His mindset is that of a local world. His good intention to stabilize temperature gives surprising effects and sometimes even increases instability. He gets frustrated and upset, because he does not understand how things work together. It is a confusing world, difficult to manage. A world of dependencies and feedback loops.

A central concept in system dynamics is feedback loops. We are surrounded by feedback loops that generate and control change through time. Delay is another key concept; the result of our actions does not appear at once. To successfully manage the world around us, we need to understand these concepts. Feedback loops and delays work together and builds structure gives rise to the dynamic behaviour of a system. Sometimes we can manage or control our environment, but most of the time all we can do is try to navigate the best we can in the world.

The thought of teaching the dynamic behaviour of systems by gaming is a very interesting thought. I would like to go deeper into that. Anyone out there with the same interest?

I have been busy studying system dynamics during the last few months and I have invested almost every spare hour into modelling scenarios of different characters. The course at UNESCO have come to an end. I have only good words to say about it and the head of the course, Juan Garcia.

The course started with a short theory part followed by a number of modelling exercises. I put some extra work into the practical modelling and policy testing to really digest it. The exercises consisted of descriptive text and a careful guide how to go about modelling it in Vensim. There were also a number of questions to be answered to deepen your understanding. I found it very challenging and rewarding to work from the text and I tried to do as much modelling as possible before following the guide. I had many interesting conversations with the professor why things behave as they do.

I strongly believe that in order to really understand systems thinking you have to study system dynamics. It is not enough to read about archetypes and general systems solutions. I also believe that in order to understand system dynamics you have to do practical modelling on your own. Not until you have wrestled with trying to express real situations or textual descriptions in a dynamic model you will begin to understand with the meaning that you see things in a new way. It is like learning a new, richer language.

I continue my system dynamics studies by working my way through the Jay Forrester DVD seminar and it is very rewarding. I highly recommend it.

My top resources among those listed here for system dynamics so far are:

Sterman, Business Dynamics – Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World

Morecroft, Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics

Meadows, Thinking in Systems

Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya and practical work with Vensim

Jay Forrester PhD Seminar in System Dynamics, DVD, 11 disc set

Other posts about this subject you might want to read:
System Dynamics Video course
Update on the system dynamics course
Me, a student

I found an interesting course at the MIT web called Applications of System Dynamics spring 2004.

This is the course description:

… a project-based course that explores how organizations can use system dynamics to achieve important goals. In small groups, students learn modeling and consulting skills by working on a term-long project with real-life managers. A diverse set of businesses and organizations sponsor class projects, from start-ups to the Fortune 500. The course focuses on gaining practical insight from the system dynamics process, and appeals to people interested in system dynamics, consulting, or managerial policy-making.

The course shows a process for using system dynamics to solve problems. Prof Jim Hines calls it the standard method, because it is the approach used by most SD (system dynamics) practitioners. The course shows how you can plan you work and how to organize your meetings with your client week by week. He uses a fictitious case all the way up to the final Vensim model and even supplies suggestions for power-point presentations to the client.

His approach briefly looks like this:
1) Problem definition: list of variables, reference modes, problem statement
2) Momentum policies
3) Dynamic hypotheses
4) Model first loop
5) Analyze first loop
6) Model second loop
7) Analyze second loop
Etc.

The interesting thing about this resource is the generous online lecture notes. I found the guidelines (pdf) very useful because of the practical advice therein and I will definitively use the guidelines as a starting template when doing consultant work in the future The entire course material can be downloaded here.

There is another SD course at MIT OpencourseWare called System Dynamics for Business Policy. It uses Sterman’s book Business Dynamics as textbook and does not have extra lecture notes. You can download the assignments of the course and they might be of some interest.

A few days ago I found a parcel from the System Dynamics Society in my mailbox. No surprise, because I can’t stop looking for interesting sources regarding systems thinking. The System Dynamics Society has a DVD series with a PhD seminar in System Dynamics with Jay Forrester from 1999. The series consists of 11 sessions, one DVD for each session. Each session is 3 hours long. You also get a CD with recommended readings (pdf format) for each session. Jay Forrester is the father of System Dynamics, which is in many ways, is foundational to systems thinking. This first DVD was very interesting. The series will be a nice complement to the course from UNESCO which is very hands-on. I like to hear and read about a subject from different viewpoints.

The series consists of
A  What is System Dynamics?
B  World Dynamics
C  Corporate Growth
D  Non-linearity
E  Theory Underlying Modeling
F  Group Model Building
G  Confidence in Models
H  The National Model
I  Ethics in Modeling
J  System Dynamics in Management Education
K The Future of System Dynamics

I have been busy the last weeks studying. Every minute I could spare during the holidays I would jump into the System Dynamics course and work with modelling. It’s so incredibly interesting! I decided that I didn’t want to stay on the level of just knowing about systems thinking and appreciating a fine theory. I wanted to go deeper and get my hands dirty with system models. I believe that not until you have wrestled with dependencies, feedbacks and non-linearities and tried to describe their behaviour and consequences, you begin to realize the true meaning of  a system.

I have worked with growth models and spent some hours fiddling with exponential simulations and suddenly I realized that I had not understood the impact of exponential growth. We look at an exponential curve and really see and act as though it was a linear one, with sometimes disastrous consequences. Most of us are untrained when it comes to complexities and feedback, how the world really works and this is reflected in the policies that are made.

I have taken yet another step into applying systems thinking. You can gratulate me to becoming a student at the Catedra UNESCO de Sostenibilitat at Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya in Barcelona. The System Dynamics Group have distance courses and I have started with one of them. I did some research and found only two places (in the world) offering distance courses in this subject. Reading books is a good way to learn, but now I have a professor to discuss with!

Astrakan

Some weeks ago I attended a 3-day course in process modelling and modelling facilitation. It was at Astrakan in Stockholm. This particular way of modelling is called the Astrakan Method and is used by many in Sweden. It is also used by one of my customers in Umeå. The course was very interesting, but I became aware of how much systems thinking in general and system dynamics in particular can enhance a discussion and a modelling session.

Systemic thinking

The purpose of process modelling is to identify the core processes, concepts and “value objects” of a business. The “value objects” are the products or services that are valuable for the customers. You divide each process into sub processes and note how each sub process adds value to the “value objects”. But as soon as you begin to divide into smaller units you risk losing sight of relations and emergent properties. Also each process lives in a context and is related to other sub contexts, which is important to keep in mind. A modelling method is a way to look at the real world and create abstract concepts and structure out of what you see. The method gives you tools to capture certain perspectives. The systemic thinking has to be part of your approach or you will miss a very important perspective.

Dynamics

When working with change, you model the current situation of the business and the desired future. From these two process maps you design a path of change. The problem is that as you begin to move toward your goal, step by step, by changing parameters, your  current situation also changes. Not only that; what surrounds you, the whole context probably changes. Surprising side effects show up after a while. The world is dynamic and complex with a lot of interdependencies. We need tools to model the dynamic dependencies in order to understand change. We need a way look at the dynamics and create an abstract model that helps us to get a better at navigating. We need the dynamic modelling approach.

My decision

So I decided to go deeper into this subject. The last weeks I have studied Sterman, Business Dynamics and Morecroft, Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics. Both are great books that complement each other. Sterman’s book is thick (almost 1000 pages), comprehensive and with numerous examples. Morecroft is more pragmatic, he shows how to build  real models with calculations and all from practical cases. The book uses the software iThink and on the accompanying cd there are several real models to learn from and play with.

It seems that people has problems understanding the seriousness of global warming. We look at exponential curves in diagrams, but somehow perceive them as linear. When we have found one cause to a problem, we stop searching and we believe that by resolving that single problem everything is OK. Our common way of thinking is linear, simple cause and effect, while reality is circular dependent and complex.

We have a hard time imagining even the simplest feedback loop system. Why is it so? Because we have not been trained in this way of thinking, systems thinking. The human being is good at conceptualizing, but we have been walking on the wrong path here. I find this challenge of training people in systems thinking so interesting. From pre-schooling to university studies, this way of thinking should penetrate our conceptualization, because this is how the world works.

I came across this very interesting blog called Climate Interactive – vigorous sharing of user-friendly simulations. What a great initiative! Making climate simulators easy to understand and accessible to a larger audience. These fellows arrange workshops with decision-makers, where a key ingredient is role-playing, giving simulated but first-hand experience what will happen. The organisation behind this initiative Sustainability Institute is working on a simulator called Pangaea that will be available on-line soon as it appears.

Simulators and games are a great way to learn in an easy way. I will continue to search for more of this and give you a report. Imagine having first a thought-provoking, engaging and participative simulation/gaming-session and after that a  world cafe conversation sharing thoughts and feelings.