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The necessity of dynamic modeling

December 14, 2008 | 10:00 pm

Astrakan

Some weeks ago I attended a 3-day course in process modelling and modelling facilitation. It was at Astrakan in Stockholm. This particular way of modelling is called the Astrakan Method and is used by many in Sweden. It is also used by one of my customers in Umeå. The course was very interesting, but I became aware of how much systems thinking in general and system dynamics in particular can enhance a discussion and a modelling session.

Systemic thinking

The purpose of process modelling is to identify the core processes, concepts and “value objects” of a business. The “value objects” are the products or services that are valuable for the customers. You divide each process into sub processes and note how each sub process adds value to the “value objects”. But as soon as you begin to divide into smaller units you risk losing sight of relations and emergent properties. Also each process lives in a context and is related to other sub contexts, which is important to keep in mind. A modelling method is a way to look at the real world and create abstract concepts and structure out of what you see. The method gives you tools to capture certain perspectives. The systemic thinking has to be part of your approach or you will miss a very important perspective.

Dynamics

When working with change, you model the current situation of the business and the desired future. From these two process maps you design a path of change. The problem is that as you begin to move toward your goal, step by step, by changing parameters, your  current situation also changes. Not only that; what surrounds you, the whole context probably changes. Surprising side effects show up after a while. The world is dynamic and complex with a lot of interdependencies. We need tools to model the dynamic dependencies in order to understand change. We need a way look at the dynamics and create an abstract model that helps us to get a better at navigating. We need the dynamic modelling approach.

My decision

So I decided to go deeper into this subject. The last weeks I have studied Sterman, Business Dynamics and Morecroft, Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics. Both are great books that complement each other. Sterman’s book is thick (almost 1000 pages), comprehensive and with numerous examples. Morecroft is more pragmatic, he shows how to build  real models with calculations and all from practical cases. The book uses the software iThink and on the accompanying cd there are several real models to learn from and play with.

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thinking
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systems dynamics, systems thinking
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